注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

姜国华:理解中国股市的逻辑

北京大学光华管理学院会计学副教授、博士生导师

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我

北京大学光华管理学院会计学教授、博士生导师、美国加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校哈斯商学院博士。著有《财务报表分析与证券投资》 博时基金高级投资顾问、毕马威会计师公司全球估值顾问

网易考拉推荐

(转载)匈牙利政府自摆乌龙 紧急澄清财政稳定赤字可控  

2010-06-07 08:29:48|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

评论:多亏乌龙消息出来时我们周五已经闭市了,周末澄清新闻又出来了。不然。。。

绝大部分散户炒短线,高抛低吸等等,是风险很大的事情。就像从北京开车去北戴河,两辆车同时出发,一个人稳稳当当地开,另一个人在车流间超来超去。超来超去结果比稳稳当当的人早到了一个小时,多享受了一个小时的阳光沙滩。挺美的呀。如果去十次北戴河,就多享受了十个小时的阳光沙滩。看似挺好,但可能第十一次风险就表现出来了。

顺路说一句题外话,我们的执法不严表现在高速公路上很明显,从北京去北戴河,大卡车经常违规在左侧的快行线上磨蹭,也没人管。这也是导致很多人超来超去的原因之一。

< xmlnamespace prefix ="v" ns ="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" />< xmlnamespace prefix ="o" ns ="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> 

来源:大洋网-广州日报

< xmlnamespace prefix ="st1" ns ="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />2010060704:39

  匈牙利政府自摆乌龙 紧急澄清财政状况稳定赤字可控

  最新消息

  匈牙利政府5日澄清了有关匈牙利面临希腊式主权债务危机的言论,表示匈目前的财政状况稳定,并且能够将财政赤字控制在国内生产总值的3.8%

  欧盟当天也表示,任何有关匈牙利将出现主权违约的言论都是极度夸张的。资本市场随即对上述澄清表示欢迎,称此举有利于稳定欧洲股市和汇市。

  可见,匈牙利债务危机更像是一场虚惊,但也反映了国际社会对欧盟经济复苏前景的担忧。

  事件回放

  63 匈牙利刚刚上台的执政党青年民主主义者联盟副主席科萨表示,新政府发现上任政府伪造了部分经济数据,匈牙利很可能陷入希腊式的债务危机。

  64 匈牙利新总理欧尔班的新闻发言人兹加图证实说,匈目前出现主权信用违约并非不可能。上述言论引发匈牙利货币和股市急跌,并导致欧美股市大挫,欧元兑美元汇率跌破1.20关口。同时,欧洲国家的主权信贷违约掉期(CDS)报价上扬,匈牙利上涨100个基点,欧洲国家融资成本提高。

  64 匈牙利央行发表紧急声明对科萨和兹加图的言论进行了澄清,称匈2009年公共债务占国内生产总值的比重为78%,仅略高于欧盟各国74%的平均值,而且匈2010年财政赤字占国内生产总值的比重预计在4.5%左右,远远好于希腊。

  64 穆迪公司表示,匈牙利在应对经济危机过程中的表现良好,匈牙利并不是下一个希腊

  65 匈牙利国务秘书沃尔高召开紧急新闻发布会,表示能够将今年的财政赤字控制在国内生产总值的3.8%。沃尔高说,前任政府确实掩盖了部分真相,但新政府将在本周一公布有关稳固国家财政的举措。沃尔高称他的同僚发布危机言论是不幸的事件

  65 欧盟委员会负责经济和货币事务的委员雷恩表示,过去几年里,匈牙利在稳定国家财政方面进步明显,任何关于主权违约的言论都是极度夸张的。

  事件分析

  匈新政府将于近期分别公布财政预算报告和新的经济发展规划,匈此时自曝财政状况糟糕,也许是为了新政府进一步的财政紧缩政策寻求国内支持。

  此次匈牙利债务风波虽像是虚惊一场,但也从一个侧面反映了国际资本市场对欧洲债务危机和欧盟经济复苏前景的深度担忧。而欧盟经济复苏前景黯淡是更大的隐忧。欧元区和欧盟经济在经历了去年下半年的反弹之后,目前走势尽显疲态,复苏后劲不足。 (国际在线)

纽约时报June 6, 2010

Hungary, Despite Comparisons, Is No Greece

By LANDON THOMAS Jr.

LONDON — By the numbers, Hungary is not Greece.

Its budget deficit is about one-half that of Greece. It lies outside the euro zone and so could, if pressed, lift exports by devaluing its currency, the forint. Most crucial, it is in the midst of an economic overhaul with the International Monetary Fund and can call upon an additional $2 billion if needed.

But that did not prevent the politically charged comments made last week by senior Hungarian officials from sending world markets into a tailspin on Friday.

The reason, perhaps, is that the newly elected center-right prime minister, Viktor Orban — like other political leaders in growth-challenged Europe — is finding it nearly impossible to satisfy two very different constituencies: disaffected voters who are unwilling to see their pay and benefits cut further; and the European Union, the I.M.F. and bond investors, who demand that such austerity measures deepen.

Compounding this dilemma is the increasingly stagnant condition of the European economies. On Friday, Eurostat, the statistical arm of the European Union, released data showing that euro-zone economies grew by just 0.2 percent in the first quarter, putting the region last among all the major global economies — even slumbering Japan.

E.U. debt levels range from 68 percent of gross domestic product for Britain to 115 percent of G.D.P. for Italy, with Hungary’s about 80 percent of G.D.P. They are thus far below Japan’s world-leading level of about 190 percent of overall economic output. But with the possibility that Japan’s new and comparatively activist prime minister might take fresh steps to stimulate its long-dormant domestic economy, worries are now building that it will be Europe that will become the world’s next growth laggard.

If Europe’s economic recovery is snuffed out by its debt overhang, it poses a danger to the global economy as a whole — a threat highlighted over the weekend in a letter the U.S. Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, sent to finance officials attending a Group of 20 summit in South Korea.

“Without further progress on rebalancing global demand, global growth rates will fall short of potential,” Mr. Geithner wrote. “In this context, we are concerned by the projected weakness in domestic demand in Europe and Japan.”

Spain, Greece and Ireland are battling to counterbalance the economic effects of government austerity programs, while Germany — to the disappointment of many — seems to be focusing more on pushing through its own budget cuts instead of stimulating its economy, which grew by only 0.2 percent last quarter.

And while Britain’s growth rate of 0.3 percent last quarter beat that of the euro zone, its own economy — more reliant on government spending than peripheral euro-zone economies like Greece and Spain — will also suffer when the new government of Prime Minister David Cameron follows through with its promises of deep cuts in public spending.

It is within this broader context of slower growth in the euro zone, in Britain and in surrounding East European economies like Hungary, that last week’s inflammatory comments by Hungarian government spokesmen should be seen.

One official, Peter Szijjarto, a spokesman for the new prime minister, was quoted by news agencies Friday as saying that the Hungarian economy was in a “very grave situation.” He even raised the specter of a default, saying such speculation “isn’t an exaggeration.”

The day before, Lajos Kosa, a vice president of Fidesz, the governing center-right party, and other officials warned that Hungary was in danger of suffering a Greek-style crisis, with budget deficits — officially 4 percent of G.D.P. in 2009 — possibly reaching 7.5 percent of G.D.P. this year.

After the comments, the forint slid, the yield on benchmark 10-year Hungarian government bonds surged and shares on the Budapest Stock Exchange tumbled.

Over the weekend the Hungarian government took pains to assure shaken investors at home and abroad that it was nowhere near bankrupt, and that it intended to meet the budget deficit target of 3.8 percent of G.D.P.

Mr. Szijjarto, Mr. Orban’s spokesman, also said Sunday that the introduction of a 16 percent flat tax on personal income was among the possibilities discussed at a three-day meeting on the country’s economy.

The notion that Hungary might report a higher deficit has stoked a broad worry within the country that past governments relied heavily on off-balance-sheet mechanisms to finance large infrastructure investments that have not yet been consolidated within the deficit.

Speaking on background, government officials and bankers advising the government said over the weekend that Hungary was committed to continuing the process of deficit reduction begun by the outgoing Socialist government. And while they admitted that it was certainly possible that the deficit could overshoot its 2010 target, they said this would be due more to differences over how to account for the finances of municipal and government-owned public entities than Greek-style number-massaging.

Nonetheless, while likening Hungary to Greece may unnerve international investors, domestically, making the comparison has its political merits. On the one hand, it could steel a reluctant populace for tougher spending cuts to come and on the other it gives the government bargaining power to push its promise of tax cuts and other deficit-busting measures that might stimulate growth.

“It is all about growth now,” said a government official who declined to be identified because this person was not authorized to speak publicly.

Such political gamesmanship could also backfire — with investors bolting the forint, as happened last week, and refusing to continue to finance the budget deficit. (Recent bond auctions have already been met by very weak demand.)

“If you were a neoconservative banker, you could believe that they were going to pursue a proper internal devaluation — and if you were an indebted small businessperson in the countryside, you could believe they were going to cut your taxes to offset increased loan repayments,” said Mark Pittaway, a history professor at the Open University in Britain with an expertise in Hungarian politics and economics. “Even with a perfect economic situation, not all of these things could be true, and some parts of this constituency were going to be very upset,” Mr. Pittaway said.

Indeed, according to Goldman Sachs, Hungary’s projected growth rate of 0.1 percent is one of the lowest in all of Europe, and a number of analysts in Hungary are forecasting a negative number — although that would be an improvement over the 6.2 percent contraction in 2009.

In Hungary — a small, open economy that traditionally depends on exports to drive growth — there is also a view that officials invoked the specter of a Greece-style financial meltdown to talk down the value of the forint and thus make Hungarian exporters more competitive in world markets.

But 75 percent of Hungary’s exports go to a slowing euro-zone economy, whose officials seem more inclined to talk down the euro to spur the region’s own exports, rather than work to stimulate domestic demand. In that context, it is unlikely that Hungary will get the desired effect of a sharp increase in exports.

In addition, a weaker forint would have a further depressing effect on the local economy by making it more expensive for the many people who have taken out real estate and other loans in foreign currencies to pay back interest and principal.

In fact, in a report last week, Goldman Sachs said that out of the major Central European economies, Hungary was most vulnerable to a sharp reversal in the euro zone’s recovery.

So, while the politics of last week’s comparison to Greece may well have been local, the root cause of it — Europe’s declining growth profile — will remain decidedly global as long as Hungary’ debts and deficits remain as high as they are.

Dan Bilefsky contributed reporting from Budapest.

 

  评论这张
 
阅读(5082)| 评论(3)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

在LOFTER的更多文章

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017